The End of History

Recent events in Poland, Georgia, and Russia bring to mind Francis Fukuyama’s 1992 popular–but contentious– book, The End of History and the Last Man. In this book, Fukuyama argues that the fall of the Soviet Union and the subsequent triumph of liberal democracy was ushering in a new era of peace, in which divisive ideologies–and hence history–would be dealt a fatal blow.

Fukuyama, however, tempered his conclusion in a subsequent book, entitled Our Posthuman Future. According to Fukuyama, notwithstanding the death of ideology, the human race still faces serious challenges–in particular, coping with the rapid advance of science and technology.

In Sunday’s Outlook Section of the Washington Post, Fukuyama revisits his original thesis in the light of recent events. In a piece entitled, They Can Only Go So Far, Fukuyama warns against overreacting to the global shift towards authoritarianism. As he says: “The world’s bullies are throwing their weight around. But history is not on their side.”

“The world’s bullies are throwing their weight around. But history is not on their side.” 

Harking back to his arguments in The End of History, Fukuyama differentiates today’s autocrats from those in the past based on their lack of ideology–that is to say, their lack of passionate and compelling ideas–as defined by Fukuyama. Because they have no real ideology, these autocrats–according to Fukuyama–cannot attract a following, and hence are not a real threat.

What might the Georgians and the Poles say to that?

What might the Georgians and the Poles say to that?

Russia on the Border with South Assetia

To seek assurance from Fukuyama’s words, we must believe that world conflicts will subside as ideologies converge, and we all become capitalists, enveloping our actions in democratic platitudes. This argument presumes that ideas and ideologies are the only thing worth fighting for. What about other forces, such as greed, racism, hatred, and imperialism? Will their appeal disappear along with conflicting ideologies? Consider the United States, for example. Even from this most favorable vantage point, we see that capitalism and democracy are compatible with violence, environmental destruction, poverty, and war, itself. (See, for one discussion, Robert Kagan, Dangerous Nation: America’s Place in the World From Its Earliest Days to the Dawn of the Twentieth Century, Knopf, 2006).

Equally questionable is Fukuyama’s claim that history plays favorites, and that, when it comes to ideology, the West’s version of capitalism will be the unchallenged winner. For a cautionary tale, recall that Hitler, Mussolini, and Tojo all believed that their causes were destined for success. No doubt, history matters as Douglass North is the first to point out. But history is not predictable. As we learn from evolutionary theorists, history is emergent–the product of an ongoing cumulative process comprised of multiple variables that co-evolve in highly complex and, therefore, indeterminable ways. Moreover, as Paul Pierson tells us, history follows a path dependent trajectory that is influenced not only by specific events, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, but as importantly, by the timing, sequence and circumstances in which such events occur. Ideologies, if they are to be relevant, must coevolve along with the full array of these historical forces. The winner depends on the way that history unfolds.

Fukuyama looks for security in ideological consensus. However, when history is conceived of as a on-going and very uncertain process, consensus may lead to untold disaster. As Geoffry Hodgson has argued, survival in a complex world environment depends on adaptation–and more specifically on the innovation and competitive selection of new ideas. In turn, the generation of new ideas requires a wide variety of ideological building blocs. Fortunately, we have not seen the end of history, so a continuing variety exists. As Fukuyama, himself, points out in Our Posthuman Future, there are today many technical and scientific challenges that lay before us. Surely, these will engender new competing interests and with them new competing ideas and solutions for future survival.

On Technorati: Douglass North, end of history, Fukuyama, Georgia, Hodgson, Pierson